Nayib Bukele Crowns Himself in El Salvador

Article at Revista Factum, published on 5 February 2024 https://www.revistafactum.com/bukele-autocorona/

For the first time in eight decades, a Salvadoran president will hand the presidential sash to himself. Even without an official result, Nayib Bukele declared himself the winner of the presidential elections and claimed almost total control of the Legislative Assembly—something he allegedly achieved through four key factors: a blow to the Supreme Court, disregarding a constitutional pillar (the alternation of power), using public resources for his campaign, and intimidating the magistrates of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE).

And starting June 1, 2021, Bukele will not be alone.

According to electoral law experts, the official party claims to have secured an overwhelming majority of at least 58 out of 60 legislative seats in a tainted electoral process. In practical terms, this makes Nuevas Ideas the hegemonic political force—if not the only one with real influence—in El Salvador.

Bukele announced his victory on social media, posting on his X account at 6:56 p.m. on Sunday, February 4. Hours later, after polls had closed, the TSE’s results system presented serious inconsistencies, with the number of processed ballots surpassing the total number of registered voters.

By the early hours of February 5, the TSE had not explained the discrepancies in its results transmission. Nor had it addressed Bukele’s self-proclamation.

With this overwhelming control, Nayib Bukele can continue governing as he has for the past two years and nine months: unchecked power, tailor-made legislation, and no second-tier officials to limit or counterbalance his decisions. A man who, at the same time, embodies the entire state.

And he is well aware of it. Before a packed Plaza Gerardo Barrios, Bukele celebrated that this would be “the first time El Salvador has a single party within a democratic system.”

A Promise Beyond Publicity: The Economy

For economist Tatiana Marroquín, once the celebrations die down, this supposed effectiveness of an autocrat who does not need to consult anyone will face significant limitations. Chief among them: the economy, the weakest pillar of the current administration.

Seven out of ten Salvadorans identify the economy and the cost of living as their biggest concerns, according to recent polls. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund has warned that the country’s debt is on an unsustainable path. And Bukele’s flagship initiative—Bitcoin—has yet to yield results.

Marroquín argues that the speed of economic intervention does not guarantee effectiveness or efficiency. On the contrary, it often reflects “arbitrary, illegal decisions that fail to consider the full scope of a problem.” If this trend continues, beyond its advertising appeal, El Salvador will not achieve meaningful economic transformation—something that requires intelligence, diversity of thought, and not just speed.

Regarding fears of rising authoritarianism, Marroquín rejects the idea that dictatorships are effective. She points out that their defining trait is a growing disconnect from diverse perspectives and the people themselves, as power is concentrated in the hands of a single person and increasingly smaller inner circles.

Her outlook on these elections is grim: “Giving unlimited power to a single political force, with no oversight, leaves little chance of addressing complex issues that are not this government’s priority. Over the past four or five years, we’ve seen that the state prioritizes matters that benefit the government’s popularity.”

Popularity and Electoral Manipulation: The Formula

A struggling economy and an uncertain future do not seem to be top concerns after February 4, when Bukele, his party, and his supporters celebrated their rise to becoming the only voice in El Salvador. A vast majority, according to official calculations, decided that—regardless of what the law says—the same person should remain in power, backed by a political bulldozer. And they now celebrate their victory.

Eduardo Escobar, director of Acción Ciudadana and an expert in electoral law, acknowledges Bukele’s undeniable popular support. However, he argues that this does not make the election democratic. Instead, he urges a closer look at whether the process was competitive, transparent, and fair. The answer, he warns, is a series of irregularities that tipped the scale in favor of the ruling party.

“This was a fundamentally unbalanced electoral contest from the moment the president ran for reelection—an unfair advantage in itself. Then, they passed ad hoc electoral reforms to benefit themselves,” Escobar said.

Within a year, Bukele’s party changed several electoral rules to its advantage. These included reducing legislative seats and municipalities, modifying the vote-counting formula to favor majorities, and passing a new overseas voting law that concentrated most votes in San Salvador, where more legislative seats are up for grabs.

Escobar also highlights how the ruling party exploited state resources for its campaign. “They used public funds to promote candidates, bolster the president’s image, and even withheld public financing from opposition parties before the elections.”

Looking ahead, Escobar predicts another alarming consequence of this overwhelming majority: weak anti-corruption efforts.

Despite Bukele branding himself as a corruption fighter, Escobar warns, “Corruption investigations will continue to be politically manipulated—used as a weapon against the opposition but never against those close to the ruling party or the president himself.”

Escobar also foresees a grim pattern: “The fight against corruption will target opposition figures, both past and present, reinforcing the narrative that this government is clean, transparent, and truly tackling corruption.”

“Jail, Exile, or the Cemetery”

El Salvador is ushering in a new political system—one of hegemonic party rule—after roughly three decades of competitive democracy, peace, and military non-intervention in politics. But the country’s history is not unfamiliar with unchecked power. In fact, democracy has been an anomaly amid long periods of authoritarianism.

Historian Carlos Cañas Dinarte explains, “El Salvador’s history is filled with figures who have amassed immense power.” He points to past authoritarian leaders such as Gerardo Barrios, Rafael Saldívar, Francisco Menéndez, the Ezeta brothers, and, most notably, Maximiliano Hernández Martínez, who ruled for over a decade. “He is our most iconic despot—a textbook dictator who not only was a military leader but also controlled virtually every aspect of national life.”

But over the last 40 years, Bukele has concentrated more power than any other ruler, Cañas Dinarte says. According to the Ministry of Health, by 2020, 68% of Salvadorans were under 40 years old—meaning that for nearly seven out of ten people, authoritarianism is a distant, almost mythical concept from past generations.

Given historical precedents, Cañas Dinarte is not optimistic about El Salvador’s future under these election results. For dissenters, “almost every authoritarian regime in the country has offered three options: jail, exile, or the cemetery.”

A recent example is the arrest warrant against Rubén Zamora, which was later revoked but served as a warning signal of “where things are heading.”

Cañas Dinarte sees El Salvador facing “a rising dictatorship.” With the militarization of the police and society, a government rewriting history to fit its narrative, and this election outcome, “we are witnessing the consolidation of a fully unconstitutional, undemocratic act.”

These warnings—a government unprepared for an economic crisis, electoral manipulation, lack of anti-corruption efforts, and repression of dissent—are predictable consequences of El Salvador’s latest election results. Tonight, however, they seem to be far from the minds of a country where a vast majority loudly cheers what some see as the death of democracy and the entrenchment of a dictatorship.